Access quarterly macro trends that are important for decision makers in the global technology industry.
The Counterpoint Macro Index tracks monthly the environment and sentiment for the global technology industry.
We cover four main areas: Consumer Sentiment, General Business Sentiment, Tech Sentiment, and Politics & Policy.
We seek to answer questions on macro trends that is important for decision makers in the tech industry, such as
✔ When can we expect inflation rates to normalize?
✔ How much visibility is there for the demand recovery of consumer tech goods?
✔ What stage are we at in the tech downturn?
✔ How are key stakeholders in the tech industry responding to recent geopolitical events?
✔ What areas are being impacted by recent events in the US-China tech war?
Economic data:
• GDP – US outperforms, China and Europe stabilize
• Interest rates – continue on a downward trajectory in the developed world. Central banks position to cut rates by mid-2024
Tech Sentiment:
• AI wave spreads to other tech areas like foundry and memory
• PCs and smartphones could benefit in H2 2024
Domestic politics in the West:
• US and EU entering tense electoral cycles
China:
• Economic fundamentals still fragile
• Stimulus boost could be short-lived
Geopolitical conflicts:
• Ukraine struggles on the battlefield, fatigue among Western allies
• The Gaza war risks spreading across the Middle East
Regulation:
• US and EU regulators target powerful tech companies
• Higher risk of trade frictions between US and EU, and China
Positive momentum to continue through 2024
• Q1’s one-year forecast has been maintained due to positive trajectory
• Global economic growth prospects see early signs of recovery
The rise of many secondary risks:
• 2024 is a big election year, covering more than half of the world’s population in more than 50 countries
• US politics impacting global trade relationships
Existing geopolitical conflicts could spread to neighbors
• Renewed threat of US-China trade war
It includes a regional (US, China, Europe) and segment (Consumer, Business, Tech, and Politics & Policy Sentiment) breakdown of the Index, as well as a ‘Risk-Impact Map’ for the biggest macro issues in the short to medium term.
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